CBAM certificate cost estimator

certificates = tonnes × max(0, intensity − benchmark × CBAM factor × correction factor)
cost = certificates × certificate price

The CN code and the country of origin. The CN code is the customs classification of the good; the country of origin is where it was produced, under the non-preferential rules of origin - not where it was shipped from. Those two answers decide everything below, because the Commission publishes its figures against exactly that pair.

The intensity, and the mark-up. Intensity is the tonnes of CO₂e embedded in one tonne of the good. Use the installation’s verified figure if you have one, otherwise the Commission’s default value for your CN code and country. A declaration on default values carries the Annex I mark-up, applied to the Commission’s “total emissions” column: +10% for 2026, +20% for 2027, +30% from 2028, and a flat +1% for fertilisers. Verified actual data carries none.

The benchmark, and the letter in brackets. The second table involved is the CBAM benchmark, set per CN code and per production route in Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2620. The route is not a free choice: for each country and CN code the Commission’s default-value table names it, in a last column headed “Underlying production route determining CBAM BM”, with a letter for each country and CN code. (K) is primary aluminium and (L) secondary; (A) and (B) are grey and white clinker; (C) and (F) are blast-furnace steel, (D) and (G) direct-reduced iron, (E) and (H) scrap, and (J) high-alloy steel. The letter is not a number - it selects which benchmark applies. So the benchmark is not country-specific (the country’s row only names the route), and it is not one number per route either. On the (K) route alone it runs:

Figures in tCO₂e per tonne, from the Commission’s benchmark workbook. Where an aggregated category names two routes - a steel heading whose row says (C)/(F) - the estimator asks which route the goods were made by rather than choosing for you.

The CBAM factor. Article 10a(1a) of the ETS Directive expresses the factor as the free allocation that is still granted to EU producers: 97.5% in 2026, 95% in 2027, 90% in 2028, 77.5% in 2029, 51.5% in 2030, 39% in 2031, 26.5% in 2032 and 14% in 2033, and none from 2034. It multiplies the benchmark, not your emissions. The familiar 2.5% figure is its complement - the share of embedded emissions requiring certificates when emissions sit exactly on the benchmark - and it is not a number to multiply embedded emissions by.

The correction factor. 100% for 2026 to 2030, fixed by Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2026/1862. It has not been determined beyond 2030, where the estimator assumes 100% and says so.

The floor. The deduction cannot produce a credit. If the benchmark times the factor is larger than the intensity, the certificate count is zero and nothing is due for that good - which happens for 171 of the country-and-code pairs in the Commission’s table in 2026. Calcined clay (CN 2507 00 80 80) from Albania is one: a 0.28 default becomes 0.308 with the mark-up, against a benchmark of 0.666 × 97.5% = 0.649.

The certificate price. The price the Commission publishes, which is the volume-weighted average of EU ETS auction clearing prices: quarterly for 2026, applied to the quarter the goods were imported in, and weekly from 2027. Certificates first go on sale on 1 February 2027, so a 2026 figure is a projection at a known price; the fourth 2026 price is due on 4 January 2027.

One consignment, end to end. China, CN 7604 10 90 (aluminium profiles), one tonne, 2026 imports, at the Q1 2026 certificate price:

4.881 default × 1.10 mark-up = 5.3691 tCO₂e/t
route (K) → benchmark 1.493 × 97.5% factor × 100% correction = 1.4557
5.3691 − 1.4557 = 3.9134 tCO₂e/t
3.9134 × €75.36 = €294.92 per tonne

The bars code 7604 10 10 takes the 1.485 benchmark and gives €295.50. The same unwrought aluminium (7601) imported from Algeria is a (L) row: its default is 0.36 and its benchmark 0.091, so the tonne carries €23.16 rather than €144.13.